Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators are business and marketing metrics that signal future trends and allow for the prediction of final outcomes (e.g., revenue) in advance. Unlike Lagging Indicators (such as sales or traffic from last month), Leading Indicators show the direction in which the company is heading, enabling proactive strategy correction.

In modern SEO and AISO, leading indicators serve as an Early Warning System. They allow a Manager to react to a drop in brand interest 3–6 months before actual sales decline.

What is the difference between Leading and Lagging Indicators?

Understanding this difference is key to managing Board expectations:

Lagging Indicators (Rearview Mirror):
- What they measure: Historical results.
- Examples: Revenue, Sessions, Conversion Rate (CR).
- Problem: By the time you see a drop in these metrics, it is too late to react. The losses have already occurred.
Leading Indicators (Windshield):
- What they measure: Activity and potential.
- Examples: Share of Search, Impression Trend, New Keywords in TOP10, Indexation Rate.
- Benefit: If these indicators are growing, revenue will likely grow in the future (even if it is flat right now).

What are the most critical Leading Indicators in SEO/AISO?

In Delante’s strategy, we monitor 4 key predictive metrics:

Share of Search: According to research by Les Binet (IPA), growth in a brand’s organic search share leads growth in Market Share by approximately 6 months. It is the most powerful predictor of success.
Impression Trend (Non-click): If impressions (in GSC) are rising but clicks are not yet following, it means Google is testing your site for new keywords. Traffic and sales will follow in phase two.
Keyword Velocity: The pace at which your domain acquires new keywords in the index. Rapid growth indicates rising Topical Authority.
Brand Search Volume: The number of queries for your brand name. A drop in this metric is the first signal that your brand awareness efforts (top of the funnel) have stalled, which will hit sales next quarter.

Why report Leading Indicators to the CEO?

CEOs and CFOs typically look at financial spreadsheets (Lagging). The Marketing Manager’s role is to educate:

“CEO, sales are flat, but Leading Indicators (Share of Search and Impressions) grew by 40% in Q1. This is mathematical proof that we will see a revenue jump in Q2. Cutting the budget now would stop the process right before the harvest.”

Can I rely solely on leading indicators?

No. They are a forecast, not a guarantee. The best dashboards (Balanced Scorecard) combine both types: Lagging (to confirm ROI) and Leading (to steer current actions).

What tools measure Share of Search?

The simplest method uses Google Trends (comparing your brand vs. competitors) and SEO tools like Semstorm, Ahrefs, or Senuto, which analyze visibility against the category.

Are leading indicators universal for every industry?

The principle is universal, but the metrics differ. In SaaS, a leading indicator might be "number of demos booked" or "traffic to API documentation pages." In E-commerce, it would be "add to carts" (before the purchase happens).